LONDON: The attack on the General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi has highlighted not only the threat from the Taliban in the Tribal Areas bordering Afghanistan, but also from those based in Punjab.

Security officials said some of the militants involved in the attack on the GHQ appeared to have links to Punjab. “South Punjab has become the hub of jihadism,” analyst Ayesha Siddiqa wrote in a magazine article last month. “Yet, somehow, there are still many people in Pakistan who refuse to acknowledge this threat,” she wrote.

Security officials said a militant arrested after the attack and hostage-taking at the GHQ was believed be a member of the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. Some hostage takers’ phone calls were intercepted and they were speaking Punjabi, another security official said. However, Interior Minister Rehman Malik has said it is too early to say whether Punjab-based groups were involved.

Separate danger: NWFP Information Minister Iftikhar Hussain called on Saturday for the elimination of militant bases in Punjab as well as South Waziristan. But targeting all of the country’s militants at once could create an even more dangerous coalition by driving disparate groups closer together, analysts say. The army also draws many of its recruits from Punjab, making any efforts to root out militants there all the harder.

“Deploying the military is not an option. In the Punjab this will create a division within the powerful army because of regional loyalty,” wrote Siddiqa. But the police force in the province is inadequate and unlikely to be able to take on the thousands of armed men belonging to different militant groups. Complicating the picture further are pressures from both the US and India, which want Pakistan to target the groups directly in conflict with them.

Pakistan has focused largely on acting against groups representing a direct domestic threat, leading some analysts to suggest it may want to retain groups like the Afghan Taliban and Lashkar-e-Tayyaba to be used as “strategic assets” against India. But defence analyst Brian Cloughley said the attack on the army’s headquarters showed how little support militants had in the military and the Inter-Services Intelligence. http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009\10\12\story_12-10-2009_pg7_8

LONDON: The Taliban hostage-taker arrested after a brazen attack on the headquarters of the army on Saturday is believed to be a member of the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, an Al Qaeda-linked group based in Punjab.

Here are some facts about some of the major groups in Punjab.

Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LJ) is one of the most notorious Al Qaeda-linked groups with roots in the province. It also has forged strong ties with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operating in the Tribal Areas.

A senior leader of LJ, Qari Muhammad Zafar, appeared before a group of journalists in South Waziristan last week along with new TTP chief Hakimullah Mehsud.

Zafar carries a $5 million reward from the US on his head for his suspected involvement in a bomb attack on the US consulate in Karachi. LJ emerged as a sectarian group in the 1990s targeting member sof the Shia community and later graduated to more audacious attacks, such as the truck bombing of Islamabad’s Marriott Hotel last year in which 55 people were killed, as well as an assault on a Sri Lankan cricket team in which seven Pakistanis were killed. Six members of the team and a British coach were wounded.

LJ was outlawed in Pakistan in August 2001. LJ members are also involved in violence in Afghanistan. A security official told Reuters about two dozen Taliban linked to LJ and two other groups, Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) and a splinter faction of Jaish-e-Muhammad, were suspected to be behind several attacks in Punjab in recent months.

Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan is a pro-Taliban anti-Shia group based in central Punjab. The group was banned in 2002 but officials say its members were suspected of involvement in attacks in the province in recent months, including the burning to death of seven Christians on suspicions of blasphemy in Gojra in August.

Jaish-e-Muhammad is a major group with links to the Taliban and Al Qaeda. It was banned in Pakistan in 2002 after it was blamed for an attack on the Indian parliament in December 2001. The group was founded by firebrand cleric Maulana Azhar Masood shortly after his release from an Indian jail in exchange for 155 passengers of an Indian airliner hijacked to the southern Afghan city of Kandahar in December 1999.

The group focused its fighting on the Indian part of divided Kashmir but later forged links with Al Qaeda and the Taliban and was suspected of involvement in several high profile attacks including the murder of US journalist Daniel Pearl in 2002 and an assassination attempt on former president Pervez Musharraf. Rashid Rauf, a British militant suspected of being ringleader of a 2006 plot to blow up airliners over the Atlantic, was also a Jaish member. Masood was arrested by Pakistani authorities shortly after the group was banned but security officials say he has disappeared since 2005.

Jaish fighters are also involved in violence in northwest Pakistan and across the border in Afghanistan.

Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LT) was founded in 1990 to fight Indian rule in Kashmir. It was blamed for the terrorist attacks in Mumbai in November last year that killed over 170 people. LT was also blamed for the late 2001 Indian parliament attack and was also banned in Pakistan in 2002.

Seven LT-linked militants are being tried for suspected involvement in the Mumbai assault but India is insisting Pakistan prosecute its founder, Hafiz Saeed, who India says was the attack mastermind. A UN Security Council committee last year added Jamaatud Dawa, a charity headed by Saeed, to a list of people and organisations linked to Al Qaeda and the Taliban. http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009\10\12\story_12-10-2009_pg7_10

HUNDREDS of pistols from German army stocks have turned up for sale on the black market in Afghanistan and Pakistan, according to a Sunday report by North German Broadcasting (NDR).
Among them were weapons from a delivery of 10,000 pistols given by the German Defence Ministry to the Afghan government, which was supposed to supply the Afghan police and army, reported German news agency DPA.
Neither the German government nor a US-led security unit responsible for the delivery in Afghanistan had chased up their whereabouts.
Both the German Green party and the Police Union demanded an investigation into the affair, which had put hundreds of the weapons in the hands of arms dealers in the region, the report said.
The Defence Ministry said it had given the 10,000 Walther P1 pistols from an old stock of decommissioned weapons in January 2006 to the Afghan Interior Ministry ‘to equip the security forces that are being developed’.
The Afghan ministry had then handed out the weapons to the police and army. The German ministry knew nothing of their further whereabouts.
The US-led unit responsible for monitoring such deliveries could piece together the whereabouts of fewer than half the weapons, the report said.
According NDR, arms dealers in Afghanistan and Pakistan said the weapons were seen as prize assets that could be sold for as much as 678 euros. One German army weapon, nearly 50 years old but virtually unused, had been offered in Kabul for 1,085 euros.
Among others, active and former Afghan police and soldiers bought the illegal guns.
The Greens’ defence spokesman Winfried Nachtwei accused the German govt of a ‘grossly negligent approach’ to the issue of the weapons.

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online//Politics/12-Oct-2009/German-guns-sold-on-Pak-black-market

PESHAWAR, Oct 10: The NWFP government has called for an early “Swat-like” military operation in South Waziristan and southern Punjab, where it believes “terrorists are trained and sent to other parts of the country”.
The provincial information minister said at a press conference on Saturday that the bomb blast in Peshawar the previous day was aimed at forcing the government to call off the South Waziristan operation.
“How can we stop terrorist activities in settled areas when the supply chain is intact,” Mr Iftikhar Hussain wondered.
“Elimination of terrorists requires dismantling their organised networks in Waziristan and southern Punjab.”
He said that after the Peshawar bomb blast and the terror attack on the GHQ on Saturday the time had come for a decisive action against militants.
Asked if the Peshawar bomb blast was a riposte to the suicide attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul, the minister said “this factor cannot be ruled out”. http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/front-page/nwfp-for-army-action-in-southern-punjab-109

by Talat Masood
Relations between India and Pakistan received a serious setback after the tragic terrorist attack on Mumbai and have practically remained frozen ever since. Clearly, the incident had a traumatic effect on Indian public and the government reacted by suspending the composite dialogue and a cold war environment has prevailed ever since. The Indian government has taken a strong position that unless Pakistan punishes the perpetrators of the crime and in particular takes action against Hafiz Saeed the chief of Jamaat-ud-Dawa they will not resume dialogue. Islamabad takes the line that it is fully cooperating and is determined to bring to justice the real perpetrators of the crime. Seven terrorists have been arrested and the next trial date is due in the second week of October 2009.

Furthermore, on the basis of our own investigations cases have been registered against twenty others who are currently absconding but efforts are being made to track them down. As regards Hafiz Saeed Islamabad is working on the leads provided but so far the evidence collected is insufficient to take the case to court. To display its good faith the government took serious notice of Hafiz Saeed’s speech of Sept 16, 2009 in which he was inciting people to wage jihad and soliciting charity for the cause, by arresting him under the Anti-Terrorism Act. On court orders he was subsequently released on bail, but is being kept under surveillance.

New Delhi’s prime focus on Hafiz Saeed is deliberate and with a strong political motive. They want to use it for purposes of symbolism and to keep Pakistan on the defensive. It is not that Indian leadership does not realise Pakistan’s predicament in dealing with Hafiz Saeed. Firstly, there is a history of LeT that at one time enjoyed the support of the military and intelligence services for the role that it was playing as a resistance movement in Jammu and Kashmir. It is only as a consequence of 9/11 that the policies changed at the official level but there is still a strong sentiment in favour of the Kashmiri jihadi’s in Azad Kashmir and Punjab. The PPP government is handling the problem politically as well as through law enforcement mechanisms but it has its own limitations.

As the army is overstretched due to its deep engagement on the western front and the government is fragile and politically weak it finds it hard to take on these militants entities upfront at this time.

Domestic politics is dictating New Delhi to take a tough stand against Pakistan. Elections are due in Mahrashrata and in some other states before the end of the year. And Congress does not want to convey an impression of being weak and “yielding”. The media has played no less a role in shaping this policy towards Pakistan. In the past it was mostly the politicians who competed in acting tough and belligerent towards each other. Now it is the media that has gone hyper- nationalist in India with nearly a hundred channels, including the regional ones competing to outdo each other in drumming paranoia against the nuclear neighbour. Regrettably a similar phenomenon is occurring in Pakistan. Any move towards reconciliation is viewed as a concession and subject of severe criticism. Commercial interests of media in India today is an overriding factor influencing and shaping Indo-Pakistan relations.

A more detailed scrutiny will show that long-term economic interests of India are not well served by the current state of tension and uncertainty that surrounds the relationship. The Indian Chamber of Commerce is supposedly unhappy with the overall drop in foreign investment since the Mumbai incident. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh also alluded that India has to maintain a consistent 8 to 9 percent GDP growth to overcome poverty and for that peace between neighbours is a prime prerequisite. By not agreeing to commence serious negotiations, New Delhi risks running into a cul-de-sac. The situation in Afghanistan is also being adversely affected by the Indo-Pakistan rivalry, creating instability in the region and accentuating the threat to US and NATO forces. New Delhi may derive sadistic pleasure by being adamant but serves no strategic objective apart from strengthening the hands of the militants.

Pakistan too must show its genuine sincerity by making measurable progress in pursuing the cases against the perpetrators of the Mumbai crime. The snail pace movement of the court cases is giving an impression that Pakistan’s establishment is foot dragging and not willing to move against jihadi elements. The delay in case of Hafiz Saeed may well be due to valid reasons of insufficient evidence but the way Islamabad is projecting its case it provides an opportunity for India to keep Pakistan on the defensive. The best course for Pakistan is to clearly demonstrate to the world that it is determined to dismantle and disarm the jihadi entities in its own national interest. The blowback from these organisations on the society is already severe and it is incompatible in the 21st century in a totally transformed global environment to allow such entities to co-exist with the state. This decision has to come from within Pakistan’s power structure and not as an act of compliance to either the controversial “Enhanced Partnership Act” or as a result of Indian pressure. http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=202739

The News, Oct 11
ISLAMABAD: Geo News and some other TV channels were once again blocked by the PPP government on Saturday afternoon, an action replay of the Musharraf-era.

The action was taken allegedly for “objectionable” coverage of the GHQ terrorist attack, but the Pakistan Army officially announced that it had no objection to the coverage and asked the government to reopen the channels.

Geo TV, however, remained shut in the afternoon while three other channels, which were also closed, were reopened shortly.

The government often shuts other channels also as a tactic to show that its action is not discriminatory and specific to one. This tactic was also used during the Musharraf onslaught against the Geo.

The action which was primarily meant to target the Geo TV, came after a senior official categorically warned the channel on Friday evening, one day before this incident, saying: “You can face damage if you do not change your policy” (Agar Aap Apni policy Tabdil Nahin Karte To Aapko Nuqsaan Pohnch Sakta Hay).

The closure of Geo TV started in the afternoon under the pretext that the TV channel was showing clips of the GHQ attack repeatedly.

Geo TV strongly denied the charge saying it is the norm throughout the world to repeat transmission as all the viewers do not watch TVs at one time. The state-run television, PTV, is also following this practice. Geo TV further said that its coverage was according to the rules and regulations of the Pemra and if there was any objection, proper legal action should be taken instead of arbitrary closure of the TV channels.

The closure of Geo TV, and for some time other channels, began with the same tactics used by the Musharraf regime by forcing the cable operators who were quietly but sternly told to downgrade Geo TV on the cable list throwing the channel to numbers 80 to 90. Some cable operators were told to deliberately disturb the audio-video signals of Geo TV so that legally it could be claimed that the channel had not been closed but the signals were weak.

The Pakistan Army and the security agencies took a firm stand against the government closure of the channels and DG ISPR Major General Athar Abbas told Geo TV and BBC that the Pakistan Army had no objection to the coverage shown by the TV channel and the channels should be immediately reopened.

General Abbas told Geo TV that he had told Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira that Pakistan Army and ISI had no complaints against the Geo and the closure orders of the government should be withdrawn.

General Abbas also told The News that he had told the information minister that the closure of Geo was earning a bad name to the army as it was being perceived that the army was behind this action by the government.

It may be recalled that the PPP government had been expressing serious anger and concern over the independent and objective coverage of news and events by the Jang Group of Publications for sometime and several high-level meetings had been held to “apply brakes” to the Geo TV and Jang Group.

These meetings chalked out strategies to control the Jang Group but action was delayed because of various reasons.

Recently when the Kerry-Lugar Bill issue was raised and exploded in the face of the PPP government, action to control the Jang Group was again considered seriously.

When Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira forced Pemra and Ministry of Information officials to take action against the Geo TV, there was a lot of resistance by some officials because there existed no legal or other justification to shut down the channel but then the orders and pressure was so intense that Pemra used its authority to take the channels off the air.

It was also learnt that the cable operators were told several tricks to shut down or downgrade the Geo TV so that if tomorrow the issue is taken to courts, they could defend their action by saying that it was not a closure but some technical fault.

Senior officials of Geo told Pemra and Ministry of Information officials that the Geo TV was showing what was legally permitted under the Pemra laws and other laws of the land. They were told that Geo transmissions earned business and they should not inflict financial loss on the channel.

They were told that if the Geo TV was found to be violating any Pemra rules, it should be taken to court and action taken under the due process of law instead of arbitrary closure, which resembled the tactics used by the dictators.

Under a democratic government such actions were not compatible, the Pemra and Ministry officials were told. The Geo officials also told the Pemra and the Ministry officials that they were extended a threat by the government a day before and now they have found an opportunity to take action against the channel. They said they intend to move the court immediately against the closure of the channel.

The Ministry officials were also told that when you people are in the opposition you always stand behind the press and strongly condemn such arbitrary measures by the government of the day against the media. “Please have mercy on Pakistan, follow rules set by Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah and give the people their right to information,” the Geo senior officials told Pemra and Ministry of Information officials. The Geo transmissions were restored after a few hours. http://www.thenews.com.pk/print3.asp?id=24954

By Shahid Kardar
The writer is a former finance minister of Punjab
The Baloch are feeling hard done by and are very angry, the exasperation having turned into resentment following the tragic death of Akbar Bugti and the disappearances and extrajudicial killings of their leadership. The causes of their distress are deep-rooted. This article has been prompted by references to Islamabad’s trying to cobble together a “Balochistan package” and focuses on the raw economic hand dealt to Balochistan under different dispensations over the years.

Of Balochistan’s total budgeted revenue receipts 94 percent are expected to flow from the federal government, highlighting both the heavy dependence on federal transfers and the huge mismatch between the assigned responsibilities of the province and the wherewithal available to it to discharge such obligations. The high fiscal dependence on federal transfers is on account of the centralised tax structure, the almost exclusive powers granted by Constitution to the federal government and because key assets/resources on which Balochistan’s development will be predicated, gas, oil, major minerals sea ports are, under the existing constitutional framework, controlled by the federal government!

Also, not only have total federal transfers (including straight transfers in the form of the Gas Development Surcharge (GDS), excise duty and royalty on gas) and subvention grants grown at a modest rate of 1.8 percent per annum since 2001-02, they have also tended to be volatile and unpredictable. And Balochistan’s total receipts from the Islamabad for all forms of transfers is less than 25 percent what the federal government keeps for itself simply for collecting all taxes, gas related excise duties, etc.

Moreover, the horizontal distribution of the NFC divisible pool between the provinces is on the basis of population. Such an approach suggests that all Pakistanis should be treated equally, regardless of the fact that all provinces are not starting from similar initial positions of service provision. Balochistan, with its large landmass, scattered, sparsely populated settlements and high level of poverty, has to bear a higher unit cost for providing services. A pure population-based division of the divisible pool puts it at a distinct disadvantage.

Under the 1997 NFC Award, Balochistan has been receiving subvention grants to cater for the special development needs of the province, without any agreed criteria for setting the level of subvention. There has been some indexation of the basic amount with inflation, but the criterion for setting the amount as well as negotiating raises is not clearly specified, affecting the predictability and certainty of resource flows under this head.

The government of Balochistan also receives direct transfers from the federal government on account of its ownership of gas. These transfers relate to the excise duty and royalty on gas, and its share of the Gas Development Surcharge (GDS). The excise duty on gas, which is based on production volumes, is set at a low rate (of Rs5.10 per MMBTU), established several years ago. Islamabad sets the rate and collects the tax and simply transfers to the province, without the Balochistan government being in a position to influence the related policy.

The royalty on gas is paid in recognition of the ownership of the resource by the province. It is fixed at 12.5 percent of the gas sold as valued at the wellhead price. However, the wellhead price has been fixed at a low level for the gas fields in Balochistan, compared with the royalty being paid on gas fields discovered recently whose wellhead prices are much higher; the price for its largest field, Sui, has been capped at 50 percent of the market/wellhead price of new gas fields.

Presently, the GDS is determined on the basis of the cost of exploration and is distributed between the provinces, based on the proportion of gas volumes, despite the fact that the GDS collected is a function of the difference between the weighted prescribed price (determined on the basis of the wellhead price, transmission and distribution expenditure, O&M cost, excise duty, minimum return of gas companies, etc.), and the price paid by the consumer. Balochistan’s gas fields are mature and are fast depleting, which has resulted in the reduction of its share in the GDS. Since the wellhead price for Balochistan fields is low, its contribution margin, per unit of gas, to the total GDS is more than the contribution of gas fields in other provinces. By allocating GDS receipts on the basis of volumes rather than total value of gas sold, the Balochistan government’s share is being artificially depressed. Whereas it contributes more than 86 percent based on the difference between the prescribed price and the defensible weighted average wellhead cost, it is presently getting a share of roughly 24 percent in the GDS distributed between the provinces. In other words, against its present share of Rs5.6 billion in GDS Balochistan would have received an additional Rs.12.5 billion.

Moreover, before 1991, GDS was only generated from Balochistan but was not paid to it, and was utilised for developing other gas fields in the country, resulting in the province losing Rs29 billion from 1991 to 1997.

This writer therefore believes that to be able to address the kinds of grievances being articulated by the Baloch (and, for that matter, also by Pakhtuns and Sindhis), a new federal structure has to be devised for Pakistan’s long-term sustainability. This will require a recasting of the Constitution and the establishment of a more viable structure that gives meaningful autonomy to the provinces. This realignment will involve a slashing of the Concurrent List and the handing over of full control over all resources to the provinces in which these are located. Once Balochistan has control over its resources it should be able to sell its products to the others at the international price, the same way that Punjab sells its agricultural produce like wheat and cotton to the others at global prices. The adoption of such an approach will also address the intractable problem of provincial complaints on the size and timeliness of receipts from Islamabad for royalty and excise duties and the inter-provincial conflicts on shares in the Gas Development Surcharge.

In defence of this proposal, this writer would argue that if Pakistan’s political and economic structure were to be implanted in the US, Texas (and for that matter in other federations in the world, like Canada and Australia) with all its oil, would not be rich; instead entrepreneurs in New York and Washington would be living it up. Contrast this situation with that in Pakistan, where gas-rich Balochistan, the owner of this country’s lifeline and richest resource, is the least-developed province in both physical and social infrastructure, and which continuously begs for funds from the federal government to stay afloat.

Moreover, and more importantly, Islamabad should give up many of the activities that it has taken upon itself to perform, largely because of the massive share of national revenues and resources that it appropriates. The Federal Development Programme includes not only the Coastal Highway and the Sandaik projects but also the construction of provincial roads (like those connecting Chaman and Quetta and Quetta and Kila Saifullah), which should be implemented by the provincial government, because most of them fall entirely within its purview. Other than duplication of effort and expenditures, the projects also suffer from poor design and lack of prioritisation, activities that the provincial government is better placed to carry out based on local needs and priorities. It is just that Islamabad will simply not let go of functions and resources that rightfully belong with lower formations of government and is unwilling to shed weight by correcting the incongruity of its size and the expanded role and mandate that it has arrogated to itself.

Reducing the importance and size of the federal government by trimming its role and by simultaneously enhancing provincial autonomy, combined with fundamental civil service reforms, along the lines proposed by the National Commission for Government Reform, the attraction for positions and appropriate representation of different nationalities in the Federal bureaucracy would also diminish substantially. The answer to the grievances of the Baloch lies in such solutions and a genuine federal system, and not in conjuring a political system around some misconceived notion of ‘supreme national interest’ nor by simply increasing the size of the federal government’s development programme in Balochistan and enhancing the job quotas for the Baloch in federally-managed public services and projects. http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=202738

QUETTA: The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) on Sunday urged the government to immediately demilitarise Balochistan, warning of dire consequences if such confidence-building measures were not implemented.

HRCP Chairwoman Asma Jahangir informed journalists that a delegation that had travelled to Balochistan last week found 30 cases of “enforced disappearances”, allegedly perpetrated by state intelligence agencies, had been reported in the province after the induction of a democratic government in February 2008. She said the human rights organisation had “ample evidence to support the allegations of the victims’ families that the perpetrators of the enforced disappearances are intelligence agencies and security forces. This has been conceded by officials and politicians in high authority”. “The military still calls the shots (in Balochistan) … the decision-making is firmly in the hands of elements that were in command before February 2008 … The provincial government is not functioning in critical areas,” she said, adding the government needed to immediately transfer all power to the elected civilian government. http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009\10\12\story_12-10-2009_pg7_11