Breaking India-Pak impasse: op-ed in The News, Oct 12

by Talat Masood
Relations between India and Pakistan received a serious setback after the tragic terrorist attack on Mumbai and have practically remained frozen ever since. Clearly, the incident had a traumatic effect on Indian public and the government reacted by suspending the composite dialogue and a cold war environment has prevailed ever since. The Indian government has taken a strong position that unless Pakistan punishes the perpetrators of the crime and in particular takes action against Hafiz Saeed the chief of Jamaat-ud-Dawa they will not resume dialogue. Islamabad takes the line that it is fully cooperating and is determined to bring to justice the real perpetrators of the crime. Seven terrorists have been arrested and the next trial date is due in the second week of October 2009.

Furthermore, on the basis of our own investigations cases have been registered against twenty others who are currently absconding but efforts are being made to track them down. As regards Hafiz Saeed Islamabad is working on the leads provided but so far the evidence collected is insufficient to take the case to court. To display its good faith the government took serious notice of Hafiz Saeed’s speech of Sept 16, 2009 in which he was inciting people to wage jihad and soliciting charity for the cause, by arresting him under the Anti-Terrorism Act. On court orders he was subsequently released on bail, but is being kept under surveillance.

New Delhi’s prime focus on Hafiz Saeed is deliberate and with a strong political motive. They want to use it for purposes of symbolism and to keep Pakistan on the defensive. It is not that Indian leadership does not realise Pakistan’s predicament in dealing with Hafiz Saeed. Firstly, there is a history of LeT that at one time enjoyed the support of the military and intelligence services for the role that it was playing as a resistance movement in Jammu and Kashmir. It is only as a consequence of 9/11 that the policies changed at the official level but there is still a strong sentiment in favour of the Kashmiri jihadi’s in Azad Kashmir and Punjab. The PPP government is handling the problem politically as well as through law enforcement mechanisms but it has its own limitations.

As the army is overstretched due to its deep engagement on the western front and the government is fragile and politically weak it finds it hard to take on these militants entities upfront at this time.

Domestic politics is dictating New Delhi to take a tough stand against Pakistan. Elections are due in Mahrashrata and in some other states before the end of the year. And Congress does not want to convey an impression of being weak and “yielding”. The media has played no less a role in shaping this policy towards Pakistan. In the past it was mostly the politicians who competed in acting tough and belligerent towards each other. Now it is the media that has gone hyper- nationalist in India with nearly a hundred channels, including the regional ones competing to outdo each other in drumming paranoia against the nuclear neighbour. Regrettably a similar phenomenon is occurring in Pakistan. Any move towards reconciliation is viewed as a concession and subject of severe criticism. Commercial interests of media in India today is an overriding factor influencing and shaping Indo-Pakistan relations.

A more detailed scrutiny will show that long-term economic interests of India are not well served by the current state of tension and uncertainty that surrounds the relationship. The Indian Chamber of Commerce is supposedly unhappy with the overall drop in foreign investment since the Mumbai incident. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh also alluded that India has to maintain a consistent 8 to 9 percent GDP growth to overcome poverty and for that peace between neighbours is a prime prerequisite. By not agreeing to commence serious negotiations, New Delhi risks running into a cul-de-sac. The situation in Afghanistan is also being adversely affected by the Indo-Pakistan rivalry, creating instability in the region and accentuating the threat to US and NATO forces. New Delhi may derive sadistic pleasure by being adamant but serves no strategic objective apart from strengthening the hands of the militants.

Pakistan too must show its genuine sincerity by making measurable progress in pursuing the cases against the perpetrators of the Mumbai crime. The snail pace movement of the court cases is giving an impression that Pakistan’s establishment is foot dragging and not willing to move against jihadi elements. The delay in case of Hafiz Saeed may well be due to valid reasons of insufficient evidence but the way Islamabad is projecting its case it provides an opportunity for India to keep Pakistan on the defensive. The best course for Pakistan is to clearly demonstrate to the world that it is determined to dismantle and disarm the jihadi entities in its own national interest. The blowback from these organisations on the society is already severe and it is incompatible in the 21st century in a totally transformed global environment to allow such entities to co-exist with the state. This decision has to come from within Pakistan’s power structure and not as an act of compliance to either the controversial “Enhanced Partnership Act” or as a result of Indian pressure. http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=202739